In 2017, the demand for both inside and outside of the textile and garment industry is gradually improving

Update:04 Aug 2016
Summary:

From January to October in 2016, China's textile and ga […]

From January to October in 2016, China's textile and garment exports amounted to 218.336 billion US dollars, down 7.12%, textile and garment export growth for the May 2015 since the cumulative negative growth, showing the export situation is not optimistic. However, we believe that China's textile and garment exports in 2016, the main reason for the negative growth from two aspects. First, the country in the second half of 2015 to increase the degree of concern about the statistical bureau data fraud, the beginning of 2016 the new Bureau of Statistics came to power, this year's export data there is squeeze water caused by artificially underestimated, on the other hand this year, the RMB presents unilateral trend So the dollar-denominated exports will also exchange rate distortion due to exchange rate factor phenomenon, if the renminbi denominated, or the number of textile and garment exports, this year's textile and garment export situation and no data reflect the poor. Looking forward to 2017 textile and garment export market, we believe that in 2017 China's textile and garment export growth is expected to gradually positive, the main reasons are as follows:

  1. Based on the 16-year NBS data, the export base data for 2016 will be good for export data in 2017,
  1. Europe and the United States economy at the end of 2016 does appear to stabilize the recovery trend, which may lead to a substantial increase in terminal demand;
  1. After 2016 devaluation of the unilateral trend of the renminbi, 2017 devaluation of the renminbi or relatively limited space, dollar-denominated export data due to exchange rate distortion caused by little room for decline, and the substantial depreciation of the RMB textile and garment exports Vibration effect may also appear lagging.

Domestic demand market, from January to October 2016, China's enterprises above designated size clothing and shoes retail sales of 1.131 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2% over last year's growth rate of more than 10% decline, which in October the month of textile and apparel retail The amount of year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, the chain rebounded slightly. We believe that, from the trend point of view, with China's economic slowdown and consumption structure changes, the traditional slowdown in textile and apparel consumption growth is the trend, but with the opening of the national second-child policy and real estate policy stimulus brought about Of the textile and other real estate lag behind the release of consumer demand, we believe that China's domestic textile and apparel market by the end of 2016 to mid-2017 will remain relatively strong, the chain gradually improved trend. 2017 full-year, textile and apparel retail sales growth is expected to stabilize to 8%. Related Links: Textile and garment industry is China's traditional light industry, divided into textile and garment industry. Textile industry refers to the fiber raw materials into finished products such as clothing and textile products, the general term for the production sector; the garment industry refers to the textile finished products processed into clothing the sum of the production sector, from upstream and downstream relations, the textile industry is garment manufacturing Industry upstream industry. Textile and apparel industry in 2016, the absolute yield -8.69%, with the A-share as a whole, in which the absolute yield of textile manufacturing section -6.89%, better than the clothing retail section -9.94%. 2017 clothing retail: focus on the following five directions: The first is the supply chain integration, reduce intermediate link loss, improve efficiency; The second is consumer upgrades, consumers more the pursuit of quality, personalized bring structural opportunities. Among them, the supply chain integration, the internal management to enhance efficiency and external third-party management services have great room for development. Second, the domestic consumption of luxury goods to complete the cyclical adjustment, the first to benefit from the light of luxury; the second baby will be the first to benefit from the industry, the second baby policy will be fully liberalized to promote a substantial increase in the number of newborns, the industry is expected to continue the economy; Third personalized demand boost designer brand development, and create a platform for designers and consumers to solve marketing, trade pain points, the market space is huge; The fourth overseas brand to expand the Chinese market to the electricity operators on behalf of the operating industry to provide a broad space for development; The fifth high-speed growth of cross-border import electricity providers, tax reform is expected to reshape the New Deal industry competition. 2017 textile manufacturing: continue to focus on devaluation and cotton prices, since the 15-year exchange reform since the devaluation of the RMB more than 11%, the depreciation is expected to increase export earnings and enhance the competitiveness of export commodities, good export-oriented manufacturing enterprises. Reversed by the supply and demand, the State Reserve cotton throw Reserve lower than expected impact, 16-year domestic cotton prices rose sharply. With the storage and storage push forward, the impact of the State Reserve cotton on the market will become smaller, while the cotton market demand in the medium to long term stability, the supply side of the acreage and production trend of shrinkage, long-term cotton prices is expected to steady growth, good traditional textile enterprises .